{"id":21379,"date":"2025-02-27T08:00:49","date_gmt":"2025-02-27T07:00:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uel.lu\/article\/pensions-comprendre-la-dynamique-pour-comprendre-le-besoin-dagir\/"},"modified":"2025-03-03T15:42:04","modified_gmt":"2025-03-03T14:42:04","slug":"pensions-comprendre-la-dynamique-pour-comprendre-le-besoin-dagir","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/uel.lu\/en\/article\/pensions-comprendre-la-dynamique-pour-comprendre-le-besoin-dagir\/","title":{"rendered":"Pensions : Comprendre la dynamique pour comprendre le besoin d’agir"},"content":{"rendered":"[vc_row type=”in_container” full_screen_row_position=”middle” column_margin=”default” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” scene_position=”center” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” row_border_radius=”none” row_border_radius_applies=”bg” overflow=”visible” overlay_strength=”0.3″ gradient_direction=”left_to_right” shape_divider_position=”bottom” bg_image_animation=”none”][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” column_position=”default” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/1″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_custom_heading text=”Position et Opinion de l’UEL” font_container=”tag:h2|text_align:left|color:%23dd3333″ use_theme_fonts=”yes”][divider line_type=”No Line”][vc_column_text]\n
De nombreux propos ont \u00e9t\u00e9 tenus<\/span> ces derniers mois dans le cadre des <\/span>r\u00e9flexions devant <\/span>mener \u00e0 une<\/span> (n\u00e9cessaire)<\/span> r\u00e9forme du<\/span> r\u00e9gime g\u00e9n\u00e9ral d\u2019assurance pension. <\/span>Dans cette <\/span>Position<\/span><\/em><\/span> &<\/span><\/span> <\/em>Opinion<\/em>, <\/span>l<\/span>\u2019UEL<\/span> se propose <\/span>d\u2019abord<\/span>er<\/span> l\u2019approche su<\/span>r laquelle un syst\u00e8me d\u2019assurance pension se doit d\u2019\u00eatre analys<\/span>\u00e9<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h5>\n[\/vc_column_text][divider line_type=”Full Width Line” line_thickness=”1″ divider_color=”accent-color”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type=”in_container” full_screen_row_position=”middle” column_margin=”default” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” scene_position=”center” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” row_border_radius=”none” row_border_radius_applies=”bg” overflow=”visible” overlay_strength=”0.3″ gradient_direction=”left_to_right” shape_divider_position=”bottom” bg_image_animation=”none”][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” column_position=”default” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”2\/3″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text]D\u00e9passer la vue statique pour adopter une vue dynamique<\/span><\/span><\/span> et <\/span>actuarielle<\/span>\u202f: t<\/span>el est <\/span>en effet <\/span><\/span>le d\u00e9fi \u00e0 relever pour se faire une opinion<\/span><\/span><\/span> avis\u00e9e<\/span> sur la viabilit\u00e9 d’un syst\u00e8me de pension par r\u00e9partition. <\/span>Une simple photo \u00e0 l\u2019instant <\/span>T <\/span>ne permet pas d\u2019en appr\u00e9cier correctement son caract\u00e8re durable.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Si l\u2019UEL et ses membres choisissent d\u2019utiliser, comme toutes les institutions nationales et internationales comp\u00e9tentes, un horizon de projection d\u2019une quarantaine d\u2019ann\u00e9es (soit la dur\u00e9e d\u2019une carri\u00e8re), de tels horizons sont r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement critiqu\u00e9s, voire \u00ab\u202finstrumentalis\u00e9s\u202f\u00bb pour justifier l\u2019inaction<\/strong>. Pourtant, un tel horizon se justifie pleinement. Un jeune entrant sur le march\u00e9 du travail qui cotise, et donc qui finance le syst\u00e8me, doit pouvoir se projeter tout au long de sa carri\u00e8re et ajuster son comportement d\u2019\u00e9pargne en fonction de ce qu\u2019il est susceptible de recevoir du syst\u00e8me, une fois sa carri\u00e8re professionnelle achev\u00e9e.\u00a0<\/span><\/i>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

On notera toutefois que m\u00eame un horizon r\u00e9duit, sur 15 ans par exemple, ne dissimulerait pas l\u2019acuit\u00e9 de la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 d\u2019une r\u00e9forme<\/strong><\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/i> Ceci ne pourra qu\u2019am\u00e9liorer le degr\u00e9 de confiance de l\u2019appr\u00e9ciation des param\u00e8tres tels que le nombre de retrait\u00e9s et le montant des pensions \u00e0 verser.<\/span><\/i>\u00a0<\/span>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” column_position=”default” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/3″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][image_with_animation image_url=”21404″ image_size=”full” animation_type=”entrance” animation=”None” animation_movement_type=”transform_y” hover_animation=”none” alignment=”” border_radius=”none” box_shadow=”none” image_loading=”default” max_width=”100%” max_width_mobile=”default”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type=”in_container” full_screen_row_position=”middle” column_margin=”default” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” scene_position=”center” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” row_border_radius=”none” row_border_radius_applies=”bg” overflow=”visible” overlay_strength=”0.3″ gradient_direction=”left_to_right” shape_divider_position=”bottom” bg_image_animation=”none”][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_direction_desktop=”default” column_element_spacing=”default” desktop_text_alignment=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_backdrop_filter=”none” column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” column_position=”default” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1\/1″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text]Ils sont nombreux \u00e0 <\/span>observe<\/span>r<\/span> la situation actuelle<\/span> pour <\/span>affirmer<\/span> que tout va bien.<\/span> Et <\/span>l\u2019image <\/span>semble<\/span>, <\/span>en apparence<\/span>,<\/span> rassurante <\/span>: des recettes <\/span>de<\/span> cotisations sup\u00e9rieures aux d\u00e9penses de pension et une r\u00e9serve d\u2019environ 30 milliards<\/span> d\u2019euros<\/span>. <\/span>Mais<\/span> les messages simplistes ne sont pas toujours les bons\u202f; <\/span>il s\u2019agit d\u2019<\/span>une <\/span>r\u00e9alit\u00e9 de plus en plus difficile \u00e0 combattre<\/span>, notamment<\/span> \u00e0 l\u2019<\/span>\u00e8re<\/span> des r\u00e9seaux sociaux\u202f<\/span>qui exacerbent <\/span>une <\/span>opinion publique <\/span>trop souvent <\/span>d\u00e9j\u00e0 biais\u00e9e.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Quelle est la dynamique ?<\/b>
\n<\/span>L\u2019exceptionnelle croissance de l\u2019emploi du pass\u00e9 a cr\u00e9\u00e9 un d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibre entre <\/span>contributeurs et b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiaires<\/span> du syst\u00e8me de pension, actuellement favorable au syst\u00e8me.<\/span> D<\/span>epuis 2012, ann\u00e9e de la derni\u00e8re <\/span>r<\/span>\u00e9forme, l\u2019emploi a augment\u00e9 d\u2019environ 130.000 personnes, <\/span>soit<\/span> plus que l<\/span>e nombre <\/span>d\u2019habitants dans la<\/span> capitale du pays\u202f! C\u2019est cette exceptionnelle croissance de l\u2019emploi du pass\u00e9 qui <\/span>permet<\/span> au<\/span> syst\u00e8me <\/span>d\u2019\u00ea<\/span>t<\/span>re<\/span> (encore) \u00e9quilibr\u00e9 <\/span>aujourd\u2019hui<\/span>. Mais <\/span>ce<\/span>la<\/span> ne sera<\/span> d\u00e9j\u00e0<\/span><\/span> plus <\/span>n\u00e9cessairement<\/span> le cas en 2026.<\/span> Les derniers chiffres pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s par le Gouvernement <\/span>montrent effectivement que d\u00e8s 2026, les cotisations <\/span>ne seraient plus suffisantes pour financer les d\u00e9penses du <\/span>r\u00e9gime d\u2019assurance pension.<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Quel sera le revers de la m\u00e9daille du ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne ? \u00a0<\/strong><\/span>
\nC<\/span>ette<\/span><\/span> exceptionnelle croissance de l\u2019emploi du pass\u00e9 va <\/span>se transformer progressivement (et <\/span>de mani\u00e8re certaine<\/span>) en<\/span> une exceptionnelle croissance des pensions<\/span>\u202f;<\/span> une<\/span> tendance qui<\/span> vient<\/span> renforce<\/span>r <\/span>le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne du vieillissement d\u00e9mographique <\/span>et <\/span>allonger les \u00ab\u202fcarri\u00e8res de pension\u202f\u00bb.<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

La base de tout syst\u00e8me par r\u00e9partition<\/b>\u00a0<\/span>
\nSi le nombre de retrait\u00e9<\/span>s<\/span> peut \u00eatre anticip\u00e9 avec un certain degr\u00e9 <\/span>de pr\u00e9cision,<\/span> quel sera demain<\/span> le niveau de <\/span>croissance de l\u2019emploi<\/span>, et donc<\/span> de<\/span> l\u2019\u00e9volution du nombre de nouveaux cotisants<\/span>\u202f?<\/span>\u202f<\/span>C<\/span>ette relation <\/span>entre nombre de cotisants\/contributeurs et nombre <\/span>de pensionn\u00e9s\/b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiaires <\/span>constitue la base de tout syst\u00e8me par r\u00e9partition. <\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span>
<\/span>Au vu de la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 actuelle et \u00e0 venir, <\/span>on peut l\u00e9giti<\/span>mement <\/span>s\u2019interroger sur la capacit\u00e9 de n<\/span>os entreprises <\/span>\u00e0<\/span> cro\u00eetre et <\/span>\u00e0 <\/span>en<\/span>gager <\/span>des salari\u00e9s suppl\u00e9mentaires\u202f? <\/span>Auquel cas<\/span>, <\/span>parviendra-t-on <\/span>\u00e0 trouver <\/span>puis attirer<\/span> ces talents, <\/span>puis <\/span>\u00e0 les loger<\/span> et <\/span>\u00e0 <\/span>leur garantir une bonne mobilit\u00e9<\/span> chaque jour au Luxembourg\u202f?<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span>
\n<\/span>La croissance fait partie de la solution. Bien que l\u2019UEL soit en sa faveur, nous soulevons la question de la pertinence d\u2019anticiper ou de postuler, <\/span>pour demain, les <\/span>niveaux de croissance d\u2019emploi <\/span>du pass\u00e9, <\/span>pour justifier l\u2019inaction.<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>[\/vc_column_text][divider line_type=”Small Line” line_alignment=”default” line_thickness=”1″ divider_color=”accent-color”][vc_column_text]Des pr\u00e9visions de l\u2019emploi en hausse ne justifient pas l\u2019inaction
\n<\/b><\/span><\/span>L\u2019\u00e9quilibre entre nombre de pensionn\u00e9s et nombre d\u2019actifs doit s\u2019analyser aujourd\u2019hui mais \u00e9galement en vue de demain. De quelle \u00e9ch\u00e9ance parlons-nous alors? 10 ans, 20 ans, 100 ans\u202f?\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

L\u2019UEL rejoint l\u2019horizon \u00ab\u202f2070\u202f\u00bb\u202fpropos\u00e9 par la Commission europ\u00e9enne au niveau international et au niveau national par l\u2019IGSS.\u00a0 <\/span>Partant d\u2019une carri\u00e8re d\u2019assurance de 40 ann\u00e9es, l\u2019horizon 2070 semble pertinent pour un jeune arrivant d\u00e8s aujourd\u2019hui sur le march\u00e9 du travail luxembourgeois, qui s\u2019int\u00e9resse l\u00e9gitimement \u00e0 \u00ab\u202fquoi il pourra s\u2019attendre\u202f\u00bb une fois retrait\u00e9 afin de pouvoir adapter son comportement de consommation et d\u2019\u00e9pargne tout au long de sa carri\u00e8re active. Avec un taux de 16%, les cotisations d\u2019assurance pension pesant sur un salari\u00e9 du priv\u00e9 repr\u00e9sentent d\u00e9j\u00e0 une tr\u00e8s grande ponction de la r\u00e9mun\u00e9ration octroy\u00e9e par une entreprise. Il est ainsi logique d\u2019assurer, demain, le maintien d\u2019un certain niveau de pension aux cotisants d\u2019aujourd\u2019hui.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00eame des projections optimistes m\u00e8nent \u00e0 un constat alarmant<\/b>\u00a0<\/span>
\nA l\u2019horizon 2070, l<\/span>es <\/span>projections<\/span> de l\u2019IGSS<\/span><\/span> sont dramatiques. <\/span>Bien que <\/span>certains reproc<\/span>h<\/span>e<\/span>ro<\/span>nt<\/span><\/span> aux experts <\/span>l\u2019impossibilit\u00e9<\/span> de pr\u00e9voir aussi loin<\/span>, l\u2019assurance pension du volet <\/span>d\u00e9penses<\/span> est la seule branche de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 sociale dont les d\u00e9penses sont pr\u00e9visibles avec un degr\u00e9 de pr\u00e9cision relativement certain <\/span>sur le<\/span> long terme.\u00a0<\/span><\/span>
\n<\/span>Les 500.000 actifs d\u2019aujourd\u2019hui ne seront-ils pas en pension en 2070\u202f?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Mais quid alors d\u2019un horizon\u00a0d\u2019analyse plus proche\u202f?<\/b>
\n<\/span>Prenons 2040, soit dans \u00e0 peine 15 ans. Est-ce dans si longtemps\u202f?<\/span> Si 2010 ne nous para\u00eet gu\u00e8re lointain, la proximit\u00e9 de 2040 en devient d’autant plus manifeste.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span>Au vu de la dynamique du syst\u00e8me d\u2019assurance pension, quelle sera la photo pr\u00e9visible en 2040\u202f?<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>[\/vc_column_text][image_with_animation image_url=”21347″ image_size=”medium” animation_type=”entrance” animation=”None” animation_movement_type=”transform_y” hover_animation=”none” alignment=”center” img_link_target=”lightbox” border_radius=”none” box_shadow=”small_depth” image_loading=”default” max_width=”100%” max_width_mobile=”default” img_link=”https:\/\/uel.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2022.svg”][vc_column_text]\n

Cliquer sur l’image pour l’agrandir<\/h6>\n[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]\n
    \n
  • La (quasi)certitude<\/strong><\/span>\u202f:<\/strong><\/span> le nombre de pensionn\u00e9s, qui va doubler passant d\u2019environ 200.000 \u00e0 400.000\u202f; tous ceux ayant aujourd\u2019hui plus de 50 ans seront en pension.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
      \n
    • L\u2019inconnue<\/strong><\/span>\u202f:<\/strong><\/span> le nombre d\u2019actifs. Les projections de l\u2019IGSS tablent sur 650.000 actifs, soit une augmentation d\u2019environ 150.000 par rapport \u00e0 aujourd\u2019hui. D\u2019aucuns disent que ces projections sont pessimistes, nous ne partageons pas ce sentiment. Pour y arriver, il faudra r\u00e9ussir \u00e0 recruter environ 350.000 personnes (150.000 emplois suppl\u00e9mentaires <\/span>+<\/span> 200.000 actifs partis en retraite<\/span> \u00e0<\/span> remplacer<\/span>). <\/span>A voir<\/span> les probl\u00e8mes actuels de croissance \u00e9conomique, <\/span>les d\u00e9fis <\/span>de recrutement<\/span>,<\/span> de logement et de mobilit\u00e9, <\/span>et un<\/span> bassin d\u2019emploi transfrontalier en stagnation voir<\/span><\/span>e<\/span><\/span><\/span> d\u00e9j\u00e0 en l\u00e9g\u00e8re baisse<\/span>,<\/span> y <\/span>parvenir<\/span> semble plut\u00f4t tr\u00e8s optimiste.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
      • L’\u00e9quilibre financier en 2040 :<\/strong><\/span> M\u00eame avec l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se optimiste de r\u00e9ussir \u00e0 recruter, loger, faire venir ces 350.000 personnes, sans r\u00e9forme du syst\u00e8me de pension, le d\u00e9ficit serait de 2 mia d’euros en 2040, la r\u00e9serve de pension serait r\u00e9duite de moiti\u00e9\u202f; <\/span>et surtout la dynamique en serait tr\u00e8s difficilement r\u00e9versible <\/span>!<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n[\/vc_column_text][fancy_box box_style=”color_box_basic” icon_family=”linecons” box_color=”#d41126″ content_color=”#ffffff” box_color_opacity=”0″ box_alignment=”left” border_radius=”5px” image_loading=”default” min_height=”100″ css=”.vc_custom_1740399530977{padding-top: 5px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;}” icon_size=”40″ icon_linecons=”vc_li vc_li-bubble”]\n

        L\u2019UEL soutient un premier pilier public ambitieux et \u00e9quitable, concourant \u00e0 l\u2019attractivit\u00e9 du Luxembourg et garant de la coh\u00e9sion sociale.
        \nC\u2019est pourquoi l\u2019UEL attend de la r\u00e9forme (une attente qui devrait unir toutes les parties prenantes, notamment pour respecter le principe d\u2019\u00e9quit\u00e9 interg\u00e9n\u00e9rationnelle) – de construire d\u00e8s aujourd\u2019hui un syst\u00e8me de pension qui soit durable<\/strong>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n[\/fancy_box][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]\n","protected":false},"featured_media":21980,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[100],"slidercat":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-21379","1":"article","2":"type-article","3":"status-publish","4":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"category-uel-positions-and-opinions"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPensions : Comprendre la dynamique pour comprendre le besoin d'agir - UEL<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/uel.lu\/en\/article\/pensions-comprendre-la-dynamique-pour-comprendre-le-besoin-dagir\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pensions : Comprendre la dynamique pour comprendre le besoin d'agir - 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